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There are reasons for the central bank to be, as policymakers have said, "careful" in approving any further rate increases. "We think real rates are higher due to very strong US growth," analysts from Citi wrote ahead of this week's Fed meeting. As of the September meeting, Fed officials said they still felt one more rate hike would be necessary. But Powell has also said growth needs to slow - and if it doesn't, it means the Fed's policy rate will need to move higher. It's a good thing that the labor market's strong," Powell said at his press conference following the end of the Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten, Dana Peterson, Consumers, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Citi, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Investors, Gross, Oxford Economics, Conference Board, Conference Board's, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, joblessness

☆ For China’s Jobless Young People, Hostels Are the Place to Be
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Vivian Wang | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

“Why can’t I, a college graduate, find a job?” Mr. Yi lamented as he sat in the hostel’s common room after a day of unsuccessful interviews. “Why is it only jobs that pay just $400 or $500 a month that want me? Sometimes I wonder, how can it be this hard?”That is the question being asked in hostels across China. As joblessness among young Chinese has reached record highs, hostels have become refuges for young people trying their fortunes in major cities, who need a place to crash between back-to-back interviews, to strategize on their next networking meeting or to fire off yet another résumé. They have become concentrated hubs for people’s anxiety, hopes, despair and ambitions, all packed into bunk beds that go for a few dollars a night.

Persons: Ethan Yi, Mr, Yi Locations: Shanghai, China, strategize

In the United States, the manufacturing sector pulled out of a five-month contraction on a pickup in new orders, and services activity accelerated modestly amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. HEADACHE FOR THE ECBIn the euro zone, business activity drooped as demand fell in a broad-based downturn across the region, causing the bloc to enter the fourth quarter on the wrong foot and suggesting it may slip into recession. "The flash PMIs mark a poor start to October for the euro zone, especially after showing some early signs of recovery in September," said Rory Fennessy at Oxford Economics. Suggesting a recession is well underway in Germany, Europe's largest economy, business activity contracted there for a fourth straight month as the downturn in manufacturing was matched by a renewed decline in services, its PMI showed. In France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, business activity remained in contraction territory in October, PMI data showed, improving just slightly from September's near three-year low.

Persons: Rebecca Cook, Chris Williamson, Christine Lagarde's, Rory Fennessy, Williamson, Ajay Banga, Dan Burns, Jonathan Cable, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Ford Rouge Electric Vehicle, REUTERS, P Global, Composite, Federal, Commerce Department, Reuters, P, P Global Market Intelligence, P Global PMI, September's, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, PMI, European Union, Bank of, Palestinian, Hamas, Thomson Locations: Dearborn , Michigan, U.S, United States, joblessness, Germany, Europe's, France, September's, Britain, Gaza, Ukraine

☆ The Fed's own economists are predicting a Goldilocks scenario: No recession, falling inflation, and flat unemployment
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve's economists are predicting a so-called Goldilocks scenario, Fed minutes show. They expect growth, flat unemployment, and inflation to fall to around 2% between 2024 and 2026. Fed staff don't anticipate a recession after raising it as a distinct possibility earlier this year. The latest minutes don't even mention recession, whereas the staff warned that was a distinct possibility back in February. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe latest minutes may also reassure investors.

Persons: —, There's Organizations: Federal, Fed, Service, Staff Locations: Israel

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

Sakran decided to work in medicine after becoming a victim of gun violence as a teenager. In the hours following the shooting, Morgan State officials canceled all remaining homecoming week events, including Saturday’s football game. It unfolded around 9:30 p.m., shortly after a coronation ceremony for this year’s Mister and Miss Morgan State in the campus auditorium. He visited the White House last month for President Joe Biden’s announcement of the first ever federal office of gun violence prevention. Sakran referenced the Morgan State shooting in a post Wednesday morning on X, formerly known as Twitter, saying he was grateful for his Johns Hopkins trauma team colleagues.

Persons: Johns Hopkins, Joseph Sakran, Sakran, he’s, ”, wasn’t, ” Sakran, “, Brady, Joe Biden’s, didn’t Organizations: BALTIMORE, Morgan State University, Associated Press, Morgan State, Hopkins Bayview Medical Center, Johns Hopkins Hospital, Police, Baltimore, Miss Morgan State, White, National Rifle Association, American College of Physicians, Morgan Locations: America, Baltimore, Rochester , New York

WASHINGTON (AP) — An inflation gauge closely tracked by the Federal Reserve rose in August, boosted mainly by higher gas prices. Friday's report from the Commerce Department showed that prices rose 0.4% from July to August, up from just 0.2% the previous month. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, though, “core” inflation rose by the smallest amount in nearly three years, evidence that inflation pressures continue to ease. Compared with a year earlier, overall prices rose 3.5% in August, slightly higher than the 3.4% increase in July. The inflation gauge that was issued Thursday, called the personal consumption expenditures price index, is separate from the better-known consumer price index.

Persons: ” Rubeela Farooqi, ’ paychecks, Austan Goolsbee, ” Goolsbee, “, ” Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal, Commerce Department, Fed, Republicans, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Locations: July’s

☆ New economic rules shatter US bonds’ crystal ball
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Yield curve “inversions” belong to the latter group. At first sight, they are right: Yield curve inversions have been a consistent predictor of future downturns. Yield curve inversions take place when the yield on short-dated government debt climbs higher than that on longer-term bonds. Lower long-dated bond yields are seen as a sign that investors predict lower rates due to an economic downturn. As such, yield curve inversions have become a popular forward indicator of economic recessions.

Persons: Treasuries, There’s, Eugene F, Fama, Kenneth R, joblessness, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Francesco Guerrera, Sharon Lam, Aditya Sriwatsav, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, San Francisco Federal Reserve, Fed, New York Fed, Morgan Stanley U.S, Treasury, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S, Covid

☆ Americans hate the economy because pay hasn't kept up with inflation — and it could stay that way until next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

One popular explanation, inflation, has fallen in recent months. But if inflation is the winning explanation, why do Americans still hate the economy? In May, year-over-year wage growth outpaced inflation for the first time in two years, and it continues to do so. Inflation, however, or specifically the gap between inflation and wage growth, is far from the only explanation that has been proposed for Americans' apparent pessimism about the economy. "If a recession were to begin at some point next year, joblessness would likely rise, weighing on inflation but wage growth as well."

Persons: they've, they're, Sarah Foster, Joe Biden's, Foster, joblessness Organizations: Service, University of Michigan's, of Labor Statistics, Journal Locations: Wall, Silicon, Quinnipiac

☆ China’s ‘Lipstick King’ tearfully apologizes after online spat highlighting country’s economic woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Li Jiaqi, who has 76 million followers on Taobao’s livestreaming platform, is one of the country’s biggest internet celebrities. Li Jiaqi attends a livestreaming ceremony in the Chinese city of Hangzhou on September 23, 2021. It’s easy for them celebrities to make money!” one user commented on Weibo, China’s version of X. His followers on Weibo, China’s version of X, has fallen by 1.1 million to 29.3 million since he made the comment on Sunday. Many online users questioned whether Li, a sales superstar for many years, was particularly harsh because he was simply tired and stressed out.

Persons: Li Jiaqi, Jack Ma, ”, Li, VCG, “, Li hasn’t, shouldn’t, ” “, Hu Xijin Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Alibaba, Global Times Locations: China, Hong Kong, Hangzhou, Weibo, ”

The Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed 2.3% of nonfarm payroll workers quit their jobs in July, down from a rate as high as 3% during the pandemic-driven "Great Resignation." The hiring rate last month hit its lowest point since April 2020. The JOLTS data for July "are moderating back to either pre-pandemic levels or levels that we have not seen in quite some time. Because the 401(k) data tends to capture higher-paying jobs, slowed hiring in that cohort could be particularly relevant to the Fed's inflation outlook. Data later this week will provide an updated view on inflation as well as for hiring and wages in August.

Persons: Fiona Greig, Greig, Christopher Waller, Beveridge, Oren Klachkin, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Reuters, Vanguard, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Conference, Fed, Nationwide, Thomson Locations: U.S, joblessness

☆ Soaring youth joblessness is driving record-setting enrollment at China's military academies
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( Jack Lau | South China Morning Post | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Total intake at China's military academies is the highest since 2017 and 2,000 more than last year. The total intake — spread across China's 27 military academies that accept high-school graduates — was 2,000 more than last year, the People's Liberation Army (PLA)'s official newspaper reported on Tuesday. Almost all places for this cohort had been filled, the PLA Daily report said. STR/AFP via Getty ImagesThe Central Military Commission — China's top military command, chaired by President Xi Jinping — announced the new standards in March. AdvertisementAdvertisementHowever, China's military academies offer far more places for men than for women.

Persons: —, Chen Bin, Xi Jinping —, Air Defence —, Xi, Liu Yang, Zhu Yuemeng, Dong Jun Organizations: Service, People's Liberation Army, PLA, Getty, PLA Daily, Military Commission, PLA Army Academy of Artillery, Air Defence Locations: Wall, Silicon, Beijing, Huainan, Hefei, Shandong, China, Liaoning

Earlier this year, David Yang was brimming with confidence about the prospects for his perfume factory in eastern China. “It is disheartening,” Mr. Yang said. “The economy is really going downhill right now.”For much of the past four decades, China’s economy seemed like an unstoppable force, the engine behind the country’s rise to a global superpower. A real estate crisis borne from years of overbuilding and excessive borrowing is running alongside a larger debt crisis, while young people are struggling with record joblessness. And amid the drip feed of bad economic news, a new crisis is emerging: a crisis of confidence.

Persons: David Yang, Covid, Yang, Mr Locations: China

But analysts warned it was unlikely the ruling ZANU-PF party would allow any loosening of its 43-year grip on power. Fewer than 10 of 210 parliamentary constituencies had results on Thursday, making it too early to identify any national trend. Results in the presidential race were not expected for another day or two but before a five-day deadline. "The equipment was being used to unlawfully tabulate election voting statistics and results from polling stations throughout the country," police spokesman Paul Nyathi said in a statement. The police named some of the organisations targeted as the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, Election Resource Centre and Team Pachedu - all well-known civil society groups that had said they were monitoring the vote in the interests of democracy.

Persons: Emmerson Mnangagwa, Robert Mugabe, Nelson Chamisa, Mnangagwa's, Paul Nyathi, Eldred Masungure, Estelle Shirbon, Angus MacSwan, Miral Organizations: Police, Citizens Coalition, ZANU, PF, Bank, International Monetary Fund, Zimbabwe Election Support, Centre, Pachedu, University of Zimbabwe, Thomson Locations: Zimbabwe, HARARE, Harare

Many economists have called on China to boost its social safety net to rebalance the economy. Yao was unswayed and would prefer consumer vouchers, which some local governments in China have issued, but in amounts too small to matter at a macro level. Local governments, while cash poor, are asset rich. Michael Pettis, senior fellow at Carnegie China, estimates that if Beijing forces local governments to transfer 1-1.5% of GDP to households, China could maintain current growth. "One of the really big conflicts is likely to be between Beijing and the local governments over how to allocate the various adjustment costs.

Persons: Erin Yao, Juan Orts, Orts, Tokyo's, Yao, joblessness, Jens Eskelund, Wang Jiliu, Wang, Michael Pettis, Laurie Chen, Kripa Jayaram, Marius Zaharia, Sam Holmes Organizations: Fathom Consulting, Communist Party, Reuters Graphics, European Chamber of Commerce, Carnegie China, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, HONG KONG, China, Beijing, United States, Hainan

☆ Bond rout will amplify Powell’s Jackson Hole words
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on "The Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 21, 2023. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Aug 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The U.S. Federal Reserve might be done hiking rates, but the bond market has only just gotten started. That poses a lofty challenge for Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he speaks at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday: calm the Treasury market without undoing the Fed’s own tightening. He can reiterate that, while the Fed keeps an eye on markets, its next policy decision rests on economic data, not ever-shifting bond yields. The U.S. Federal Reserve holds its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming from Aug. 24 to Aug. 26.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jonathan Ernst, Freddie Mac, CreditCards.com, Powell, Powell won’t, Christine Lagarde, Francesco Guerrera, Sharon Lam Organizations: Federal, Financial, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, U.S . Federal, Futures, Fed, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Government, , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ What do ‘Big Short’ Michael Burry and Warren Buffett know that we don’t?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, also made a gigantic bet last quarter on a Wall Street crash. Bank of America released its August global fund manager survey on Tuesday and found that money managers are feeling the least pessimistic about markets since February 2022. So what do Buffett and Burry know that the rest of us don’t? Russia and Ukraine: Global inflation is finally coming down, but heightened geopolitical tensions threaten to raise food and oil prices across the globe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke fears of increased commodity prices, global economic instability and uncertainty around security.

Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, That’s, Michael Burry, Buffett, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, hasn’t, Fitch, ”, Gregory Daco, Catherine Thorbecke, Catherine Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Securities, Exchange, Scion Asset Management, Bank of America, Traders, National Bureau of Statistics, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bank, First Republic Bank, Huntington Bank, PacWest, Western Alliance, Commerce Department Locations: New York, China, Ukraine, Russia, stoke, Huntington, Lahaina , Hawaii, Lahaina, Las Vegas, Maui

☆ China is hiding key data to pretend its economy is doing OK. It's not.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China is hiding unflattering data, with its economy struggling. The National Bureau of Statistics didn't report youth unemployment numbers this month. The National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday it would stop releasing youth unemployment numbers, after joblessness among 16-to-24 year olds spiked to 21% in June. China's economy could be a "ticking time bomb", the President told a fundraiser event in Utah, adding that "when bad folks have problems, they do bad things." Those measures could help jumpstart China's struggling economy – but trying to turn off the bad news tap will not.

Persons: Brad Setser, Joe Biden, jumpstart Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Financial Times, Service, National Bureau of Statistics, Treasury Locations: China, Beijing, Wall, Silicon, Japan, Utah, China's

☆ Morning Bid: Bonds droop as inflation cheer fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 1, 2023. Perhaps ask your friendly bond dealer, as traders in the world's deepest market quickly got over their excitement at steadying inflation, which held at 0.2% month-on-month. Yields went up along the curve, even if markets took the risk of another rate hike next month down a little. Yet the U.S. dollar held gains made overnight and took the yen back near levels that prompted intervention last year. Stocks there were back under pressure during Friday, with Alibaba (9988.HK) handing back gains on its solid result and property stocks sliding.

Persons: Tom Westbrook, Stocks, Treasuries, Joe Biden, Philip Lowe, Michelle Bullock, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, U.S ., HK, Chevron, PPI, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Asia, untraded, Tokyo, China, HK, Australia, Woodside, WDS.AX, Europe, joblessness

☆ 3 options for struggling student loan borrowers when payments restart
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Annie Nova | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Jacob Wackerhausen | Istock | Getty ImagesWith other household debt on the rise, the restart of student loan payments in less than two months may cause financial hardship for many Americans. The pause on federal student loan payments is one of the last Covid pandemic-era relief measures still in effect, but the bills are expected to finally resume in October. If you're unemployed when student loan payments resume, you can request an unemployment deferment with your servicer. The maximum amount of time you can use an unemployment or hardship deferment is usually three years, per type. Kantrowitz provided an example: A $30,000 student loan with a 5% interest rate would increase by $1,500 a year under a forbearance.

Persons: Jacob Wackerhausen, Mark Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Betsy Mayotte, Biden Organizations: Istock, Deferments, Peace Corps, The, Student Loan Advisors Locations: Mayotte

☆ Job growth slowed in July after a red-hot labor market in the first half of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Madison Hoff | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Private education and health services saw a one-month job gain of 100,000, with healthcare and social assistance seeing a gain of 87,100. Leisure and hospitality, construction, and financial activities are some of the other industries that saw job growth. Julia Pollak, chief economist at ZipRecruiter, told Insider Friday's report from BLS showed a slowing labor market but one that's "still very solid." Different data points before Friday's jobs report suggest that the labor market is still a strong jobs market for workers and job seekers. Pollak described the labor market as sustainable, and Bunker described it as robust. So this is still a strong, resilient, robust labor market."

Persons: payrolls, Daniel Zhao, Julia Pollak, Pollak, it's, Nick Bunker, Tuesday's, Bunker, Labor Julie Su, we're Organizations: payrolls, Service, of Labor Statistics, BLS, Friday's BLS, North America, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Locations: Wall, Silicon, Friday's

The Fed last week raised its policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range, the 11th increase in the last 12 meetings. Core inflation is still pretty elevated," Powell said in a press conference after the end of the Fed's two-day policy meeting. We think we're going to need to hold policy at restrictive levels for some time. The Fed's policy rate influences the economy by changing what lenders charge consumers for credit card, auto, and home loans or what businesses pay on bonds or for credit lines. "Given that inflation is still sticky, they're going to end up with rates either too high or as high as they are for too long.

Persons: Antulio Bomfim, Bomfim, what's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lindsay Owens, Thomas Simons, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Trust Asset Management, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, STAR, North Star, Open, Jefferies, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Wage Growth Slowed in Second Quarter, a Sign the Economy is Cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Ben Casselman | More About Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Wage growth, by various measures, has softened in recent months, but inflation has fallen by even more. Workers are better off as a result: Pay, adjusted for inflation, rose in the second quarter for the first time in two years. The slowdown in wage growth has surprised some economists because the unemployment rate remains very low, which ordinarily would put pressure on companies to raise pay to attract and retain workers. But other evidence suggests that the labor market has softened even without a big increase in joblessness. Employers are posting fewer job openings, are adding fewer new jobs and are poaching fewer employees from competitors, all signs that demand for workers has slowed.

Persons: ”, Beth Ann Bovino, Michael Gapen Organizations: Workers, “, U.S . Bank, Fed, Bank of America Locations: joblessness

☆ China's real youth unemployment rate could actually be close to 50% - more than double the official rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China's youth unemployment rate may be severely skewed, a Peking University professor wrote. While official statistics for March cited a 19.7% rate, Zhang Dandan estimated it's closer to 46.5%. According to Zhang Dandan, whose findings were recently published in the financial magazine Caixin, March's youth unemployment rate could have been as much as 46.5% when accounting for 16 million non-students not actively seeking work, Reuters reported. This is more than double that month's official 19.7% rate, as published by the National Bureau of Statistics. To be sure, the US Labor Department's unemployment rate doesn't include Americans who have stopped looking for work.

Persons: Zhang Dandan, COVID Organizations: Peking University, Service, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, US Labor Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Don't give the Fed credit for crushing inflation, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation hasn't cooled because of the Federal Reserve's interest-rate hikes, Paul Krugman says. Still, the US economy might be in worse shape today if the Fed hadn't raised rates, Krugman says. Those forces plateaued more than a year ago, but have only been reflected in recent months due to lags in inflation measures, Krugman said. "This suggests to me that the Fed may have done the right thing for the wrong reasons," Krugman said. He explained that surprisingly resilient US demand could indicate the Fed stopped the economy overheating and inflation surging by raising rates, which allowed recombobulation to relieve pricing pressures.

Persons: Paul Krugman, it's, Krugman, —, recombobulation Organizations: Service, New York Times, Fed, Princeton, MIT Locations: Wall, Silicon

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